Tonight’s 72nd Emmy Awards are already expected to be unpredictable. Jimmy Kimmel will be hosting the virtual ceremony, and it seems nearly impossible that a quarantine awards show can manage to go off without a few hiccups. With the nominations, there are a few chances for upsets, see my picks and analysis below.

Outstanding Drama Series

Nominees:

Better Call Saul (AMC)
Killing Eve (AMC)
Ozark (Netflix)
Stranger Things (Netflix)
Succession (HBO)
The Crown (Netflix)
The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
The Mandalorian (Disney+)

Will Win: Succession
Should Win: Succession

This one’s a no-brainer. Succession’s first season was overshadowed at the Emmys by Game of Thrones’ grand finale. Now, the sophomore hit drama has its turn to shine as HBO’s rightful, well, successor.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Nominees:

Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Dead to Me (Netflix)
Insecure (HBO)
Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
The Good Place (NBC)
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
What We Do in the Shadows (FX)

Will Win: Schitt’s Creek
Should Win: The Good Place

Why yes, I’m still upset about The Kominsky Method being nominated over Ramy, thanks for asking. Schitt’s Creek’s goodbye season has gotten a lot of love, and deservedly so. Yet The Good Place’s beautiful final season has been somewhat lost in the shuffle. Additionally, The Good Place is the only network nominee, which says a lot about the shifting television landscape.

Outstanding Limited Series

Nominees:

Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
Mrs. America (FX)
Unbelievable (Netflix)
Unorthodox (Netflix)
Watchmen (HBO)

Will Win: Watchmen
Should Win: Watchmen

In a powerhouse year for female-led limited series, Watchmen still managed to stand out from the pack. Expanding brilliantly on an already-rich source material, the HBO series thoughtfully and creatively used a sci-fi lens to address timely issues around race and policing.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees:

Jason Bateman as Martin “Marty” Byrde, Ozark (Netflix)
Billy Porter as Pray Tell, Pose (FX)
Brian Cox as Logan Roy, Succession (HBO)
Jeremy Strong as Kendall Roy, Succession (HBO)
Steve Carell as Mitch Kessler, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Sterling K. Brown as Randall Pearson, This Is Us (NBC)

Will Win: Brian Cox
Should Win: Jeremy Strong

In a meta competition between television father and son, it seems likely that Daddy Roy will take home the big prize, despite some fear about the two leads splitting the Succession vote and leaving room for an upset. Jeremy Strong deserves the win this year, as his clear dedication to showing the viewer the broken side of Kendall Roy and the prodigal son’s reliance on his father’s affirmation.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees:

Zendaya as Rue Bennett, Euphoria (HBO)
Jodie Comer as Villanelle, Killing Eve (AMC)
Sandra Oh as Eve Polastri, Killing Eve (AMC)
Laura Linney as Wendy Byrde, Ozark (Netflix)
Olivia Colman as Queen Elizabeth II, The Crown (Netflix)
Jennifer Aniston as Alex Levy, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

Will Win: Jennifer Aniston
Should Win: Zendaya

Jennifer Aniston’s role on The Morning Show has garnered her lots of buzz — and her first Emmy nomination in over ten years — and it appears she may have a win on her hands. However, Zendaya’s raw starring performance as Rue in the HBO drama paints a complicated but in-depth glimpse into the high school struggles unique to teens today.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees:

Don Cheadle as Maurice Monroe, Black Monday (Showtime)
Anthony Anderson as Andre Johnson, Black-ish (ABC)
Ramy Youssef as Ramy Hassan, Ramy (Hulu)
Eugene Levy as Johnny Rose, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Ted Danson as Michael, The Good Place (NBC)
Michael Douglas as Sandy Kominsky, The Kominsky Method (Netflix)

Will Win: Eugene Levy
Should Win: Ramy Youssef

I’m expecting many Schitt’s Creek wins as a nice “send-off gift” to the show, and Eugene Levy’s win would be no exception. This award really should go to Golden Globe-winner Ramy Youssef, who led an incredible second season of his self-titled Hulu comedy.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees:

Tracee Ellis Ross as Dr. Rainbow Johnson, Black-ish (ABC)
Christina Applegate as Jen Harding, Dead to Me (Netflix)
Linda Cardellini as Judy Hale, Dead to Me (Netflix)
Issa Rae as Issa Dee, Insecure (HBO)
Catherine O’Hara as Moira Rose, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
Rachel Brosnahan as Miriam “Midge” Maisel, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Will Win: Catherine O’Hara
Should Win: Catherine O’Hara

Catherine O’Hara’s Moira Rose is arguably the best part of Schitt’s Creek, and deserves to take the Emmy home, no doubt about it. Can we give her another Emmy if she accepts the award in character?

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Nominees:

Hugh Jackman as Frank Tassone, Bad Education (HBO)
Jeremy Pope as Archie Coleman, Hollywood (Netflix)
Mark Ruffalo as Dominick & Thomas Birdsey, I Know This Much Is True (HBO)
Paul Mescal as Connell Waldron, Normal People (Hulu)
Jeremy Irons as Adrian Veidt/Ozymandias, Watchmen (HBO)

Will Win: Mark Ruffalo
Should Win: Hugh Jackman

In the battle of The Hulk vs. Wolverine, it appears the green giant has the upper hand. While Ruffalo’s acclaim for his double acting duty is understandable, Jackman’s turn as real-life embezzling superintendent Frank Tassone is worthy of the gold.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Nominees:

Kerry Washington as Mia Warren, Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu)
Cate Blanchett as Phyllis Schlafly, Mrs. America (FX)
Octavia Spencer as Madam C. J. Walker, Self Made (Netflix)
Shira Haas as Esther “Esty” Shapiro, Unorthodox (Netflix)
Regina King as Angela Abar/Sister Knight, Watchmen (HBO)

Will Win: Regina King
Should Win: Regina King

In one of the most competitive categories this year, Regina King unsurprisingly managed to stand out for her phenomenal work in Watchmen. King’s won three of her four prior Emmy nominations, so don’t be surprised if she takes home this one as well.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nominees:

Giancarlo Esposito as Gus Fring, Better Call Saul (AMC)
Nicholas Braun as Greg Hirsch, Succession (HBO)
Kieran Culkin as Roman Roy, Succession (HBO)
Matthew Macfadyen as Tom Wambsgans, Succession (HBO)
Bradley Whitford as Commander Joseph Lawrence, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Billy Crudup as Cory Ellison, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Mark Duplass as Charles “Chip” Black, The Morning Show (Apple TV+)
Jeffrey Wright as Bernard Lowe, Westworld (HBO)

Will Win: Billy Crudup
Should Win: Any of the Succession actors

If you thought there was a risk of the Succession vote being split in the Lead Actor category, that’s even more of a concern here. Roman, Greg, and Tom are the most entertaining parts of Succession, bringing in some necessary comic moments to the severe drama, and seeing any of the three actors win would be a delight. The next-most-likely contender would be Crudup, so I predict the Emmy will go to him.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Nominees:

Laura Dern as Renata Klein, Big Little Lies (HBO)
Meryl Streep as Mary Louise Wright, Big Little Lies (HBO)
Fiona Shaw as Carolyn Martens, Killing Eve (HBO)
Julia Garner as Ruth Langmore, Ozark (Netflix)
Sarah Snook as Siobhan “Shiv” Roy, Succession (HBO)
Helena Bonham Carter as Princess Margaret, The Crown (Netflix)
Samira Wiley as Moira Strand, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
Thandie Newton as Maeve Millay, Westworld (HBO)

Will Win: Helena Bonham Carter
Should Win: Sarah Snook

As Shiv moved closer to center stage in Succession’s second season, Sarah Snook showed she was able to be as fascinating a character as her brother Kendall. However, another notable sister will most likely be taking home the Emmy, as Helena Bonham Carter absolutely rocked her portrayal of Princess Margaret.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees:

Andre Braugher as Captain Ray Holt, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (NBC)
Mahershala Ali as Sheikh Ali Malik, Ramy (Hulu)
Kenan Thompson as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Dan Levy as David Rose, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
William Jackson Harper as Chidi Anagonye, The Good Place (NBC)
Alan Arkin as Norman Newlander, The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
Tony Shalhoub as Abe Weissman, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
Sterling K. Brown as Reggie, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Will Win: Dan Levy
Should Win: Mahershala Ali 

The multi-talented Dan Levy seems poised to take home the Emmy for his work on Schitt’s Creek. In reality, Eugene & Dan probably should’ve switched categories, though the elder Levy’s fame and illustrious career is the probable reason behind the nomination strategy. Meanwhile, it can be tough for a serious role in comedy to get proper recognition, so even with Ali’s great awards record and stand-out performance, a win for him seems unlikely.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees:

Betty Gilpin as Debbie “Liberty Belle” Eagan, GLOW (Netflix)
Yvonne Orji as Molly Carter, Insecure (HBO)
Cecily Strong as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Kate McKinnon as Various Characters, Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Annie Murphy as Alexis Rose, Schitt’s Creek (Pop TV)
D’Arcy Carden as Janet, The Good Place (NBC)
Alex Borstein as Susie Myerson, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
Marin Hinkle as Rose Weissman, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)

Will Win: Alex Borstein
Should Win: D’Arcy Carden

Two-time consecutive winer Alex Borstein will likely win again. While Borstein is a highlight of Maisel, her win would feel a bit predictable and D’Arcy Carden’s work as Janet on The Good Place is criminally underrated.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Nominees:

Dylan McDermott as Ernest “Ernie” West, Hollywood (Netflix)
Jim Parsons as Henry Willson, Hollywood (Netflix)
Titus Burgess as Titus Andromedon, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. The Reverend (Netflix)
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II as Calvin “Cal” Abar, Watchmen (HBO)
Jovan Adepo as Young Will Reeves, Watchmen (HBO)
Louis Gossett Jr. as Will Reeves, Watchmen (HBO)

Will Win: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II
Should Win: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

While three Watchmen nominees may already seem like a lot, the biggest snub of the year was arguably Tim Blake Nelson’s omission from this category. That being said, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II’s range as Angela’s husband Cal and (spoiler) Dr. Manhattan should deservedly nab the Emmy.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

Nominees:

Holland Taylor as Ellen Kincaid, Hollywood (Netflix)
Uzo Aduba as Shirley Chisholm, Mrs. America (FX)
Margo Martindale as Bella Abzug, Mrs. America (FX)
Tracey Ullman as Betty Friedan, Mrs. America (FX)
Toni Collette as Detective Grace Rasmussen, Unbelievable (Netflix)
Jean Smart as Agent Laurie Blake, Watchmen (HBO)

Will Win: Jean Smart
Should Win: Toni Collette

Unbelievable was amazing, but in a year dominated by Watchmen a Toni Collette win seems unlikely. Jean Smart’s dynamic and scene-stealing power as the former Silk Spectre Laurie Blake is likely to result in a worthy win.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

Nominees:

A Black Lady Sketch Show (HBO)
Drunk History (Comedy Central)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Will Win: Saturday Night Live
Should Win: A Black Lady Sketch Show

It’s (painfully) predictable, but there’s almost no way SNL won’t take home the Emmy yet again. On the other hand, Robin Thede’s triumphant return to television with A Black Lady Sketch Show is hilarious, plus it’d be great to see an underdog win.

P.S. Rest in Peace Drunk History. I learned more from you than the American school system ever taught me.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

Nominees:

Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS)
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Comedy Central)
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)

Will Win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Should Win: Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj (Netflix)

Before you think I’ve made some mistake, no, I know Patriot Act wasn’t nominated. It’s outrageous it wasn’t. Hasan Minhaj does John Oliver better than John Oliver. The vibrant, youthful, energetic spirit of Patriot Act breathed new life into the “thirty minute deep-dive” format made famous by Last Week Tonight. Netflix’s untimely cancellation of Patriot Act — the only late night show with an Indian & Muslim host — during an election year just adds more salt to the wound.

The three-hour ceremony will be airing tonight (September 20th) on ABC at 5pm Pacific/8pm Eastern.